Rivers is the most obvious candidate among QBs for positive regression in the second half of the season.  Aside from non-fantasy options Sam Bradford and Matt Moore, Rivers has the highest yards per touchdown thrown number (298 yards for each TD pass).  To say it another way, Rivers is 9th in passing yards but only 23rd in TDs.  What this means is that Rivers is producing yardage like a top ten quarterback but has had bad luck in the TD department.  Yardage is something more within the control of the player, so as long as Rivers keeps putting up yardage, the TDs will come.

Rivers has also been unlucky in another category that is largely out of the quarterback’s hands, interception rate.  His 4.2% rate is the fourth highest in the league.  The league average this year is 2.7% and Rivers’ rate will certainly regress toward that mean.  Rivers is still a top ten quarterback.  He’s just been very unlucky.

Fitzy may be due for a minor amount of touchdown regression, but ultimately it’s nothing to be concerned about.  On the other hand, his matchups during the fantasy playoffs are drool-worthy.  After a tough matchup in week 14 against San Diego, Buffalo finishes the season with games against the three teams that have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing QB’s in Denver, Miami, and New England.

Last year, Freeman finished 7th among quarterbacks.  This year, he currently sits 14th.  Last year, Freeman was the beneficiary of an ultra-lucky 1.3% interception rate.  This year, his fortune has turned as his INT% is currently 3.7%.  Freeman is 15th in passing yards and averages three fantasy points on the ground per game.  If his luck is simply neutral going forward, he has the skill set to be a top ten QB in the second half.

Like Rivers and Freeman, Cassel has been unlucky with the interceptions.  And like Fitzpatrick, he has a very easy schedule in weeks 15-17.  He shouldn’t cost much if you’re looking for a reliable backup.

It’s understandable if you don’t think you’d be able to pull the trigger on dealing Stafford.  After all, he is 4th among QBs in fantasy points ahead of guys like Tom Brady and Michael Vick.  But there are reasons to at least consider moving Stafford.  He has the lowest number of yards per touchdown pass thrown and has an unsustainably low interception rate of 1.33%.  His fantasy playoff schedule is rather favorable, and he’ll still be a top ten QB from here on out, but he’s not likely to continue as a top five QB, and you should part ways with him if you can get top five value back.

If you thought it would be crazy to trade away Stafford, I can imagine how crazy you must think it would be to deal Rodgers, but hear me out.  He has the 2nd lowest number of yards per touchdown pass thrown and his interception rate is even lower than Stafford’s (1.25%).  His playoff schedule isn’t tough, but it’s also not one of the most favorable.  Moreover, three of his last five games are in Green Bay, and his two road games are in cities that could also exhibit poor weather conditions (New York, Kansas City).

If you can afford to lose Rodgers because you drafted a viable backup like Stafford, Cam Newton, or even Eli Manning or Fitzpatrick, think seriously about trading Rodgers because of the ransom you could get in return.  No matter how good he is, he will experience some level of regression, and his trade value will never be higher than it is right now.

There’s no point in discussing each back individually because the analysis is the same for all three.  Each back should see an increase in TD totals in the second half because they have high carry per touchdown and yards per touchdown numbers.  All that means is that these guys are getting the ball a lot and doing something productive when they get it.  As long as that continues, they’ll eventually start finding the end zone more frequently.

MJD and Greene also have the most favorable fantasy playoff schedules of any backs that aren’t a part of a backfield committee. McGahee’s schedule isn’t quite as favorable, but he will see middling run defenses in three of the four fantasy playoff weeks.

As you might have guessed given the previous analysis, each of the backs is due for regression in their touchdown totals.  They all have low carries per touchdown and yards per touchdown numbers, which means their touchdown totals are likely to be lower in the second half.

They also have rough schedules during the fantasy playoffs.  McCoy and Tolbert will only see one defense in the last four weeks of the season that ranks among the top ten in most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.  And Green-Ellis will only face one defense that is currently below average in that category.

Marshall is 12th in receiving yards, 9th in receptions, and 7th in targets yet he only has one touchdown.  That can’t last.  With that amount of work, the touchdowns will come.  In the fantasy playoffs, he will face a soft Buffalo secondary in Week 15 and an even softer New England secondary in Week 16.  However, he has to face Philly’s corners in Week 14 and will visit Revis Island in the final week of the season. 

All in all, you have to take the good with the bad with Marshall.  Positive regression is on its way, but it may be mitigated somewhat by Matt Moore throwing him the ball.  A couple matchups are awesome, but a couple matchups are brutal.  Considering that it wouldn’t cost a ton to get Marshall right now, the good probably outweighs the bad.

Before his first career touchdown last week, Brown had the highest number of receiving yards without recording a touchdown catch.  Even though he finally got in the end zone, there’s more regression to come in the way of touchdowns.

There’s more to like about Brown.  He leads Pittsburgh in targets this season (yes, including Mike Wallace).  And the playoff schedule isn’t as bad for Brown as it will be for Wallace.  Both should feast on St. Louis’ secondary in Week 16, but they play Cleveland twice in the final four weeks.  Fortunately for Brown, Joe Haden can only cover one man.  He’ll undoubtedly focus on Wallace leaving Brown with second-tier coverage.

Because Freeman and Fitzpatrick are listed as in the QB “buy” section, it’s reasonable to assume that Williams and Johnson would be guys to target as well.  Johnson isn’t in line for a bump in his touchdown total, but he’s not in line for a decline in that category either.  His schedule during the playoffs is good just like Fitzpatrick’s, obviously, so he’s worth considering as a trade target.

Williams is a potential bargain both because Freeman’s play should improve and because, aside from Reggie Wayne, he is the most targeted receiver in the league (63) with only one touchdown or less.  It’s just not feasible that he will continue to get that many looks and not get in the end zone.

Green is 18th in receptions, 13th in receiving yards, and 14th in targets.  There is nothing wrong with those numbers, but they aren’t exactly numbers you would expect to go along with receiver with the sixth highest fantasy point total.  Driving Green’s borderline top five fantasy receiver success is his touchdown total (tied for 3rd among WRs).  He should see a dip in touchdowns going forward and should slip outside the top ten among receivers by season’s end.

Cruz is catching a touchdown pass once out of every seven of his receptions.  Mario Manningham is catching a touchdown pass once out of every 24 of his receptions.  That distribution of touchdowns is going to even out making Manningham the New York receiver you want to own behind Hakeem Nicks.  And you might not want to own either of them during the playoffs as the Giants won’t face a single defense that is below average in fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers in weeks 14-17.

Winslow is the only tight end with at least 30 receptions who doesn’t have more than one touchdown catch.  He also has two really sweet matchups to start the fantasy playoffs.  He’ll face Jacksonville and Dallas who allow the 2nd and 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

During the playoffs, Gonzalez won’t face a single defense that is currently in the top half of fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends.  Carolina (16th), Jacksonville (4th), New Orleans (12th), and Tampa Bay (5th) is about the best set of matchups you could hope for.

Both of these tight ends have been pretty damn good recently.  Ballard is averaging almost nine points per game over his last four, and Celek has double digit points in consecutive weeks.  Moreover, they have playoff schedules that are just about as good as Winslow’s and Gonzalez’s.  If you’re someone who doesn’t own one of the 5-6 safe tight ends, you should be able to add these two off your wire, and they should pay dividends in the last few weeks of the year.

Because Finley has been somewhat of a disappointment, he may be a tough player to sell at this point.  However, there might be someone in your league who just looks at his point total and doesn’t realize he has recorded single digit points in six of seven games.  What’s worse is that it’s not like he has been unlucky.  In fact, he’s lucky that he has four touchdowns when he only has 25 receptions.