Fantasy Football

Week 9 Fantasy Football, “Peckin’ Order”: And The Mid-Season Awards Go To…

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Fred Jackson (credits below)

Highlight: Taking a look back at the average draft position and who has outperformed their ADP, and who under performed it at the halfway point.

Mock drafts are a great way to determine where players are being drafted before your real drafts. And as many of your little league and tee ball coaches told you after seeing you in dismay sulking in the corner thinking you are no good, “practice makes perfect”. Mock drafts are essentially that. Practice. Mock drafts are used to understand the logic of the other players around you. Who is high on Calvin Johnson, and who is low on Chris Johnson? Obviously these drafts are no substitute for the knuckle heads that will undoubtedly draft Eli Manning before they draft Drew Brees (and believe me I have seen it) but it will give you a good idea as to where players SHOULD go, who you will need to reach for, and who you can keep stowed in your pocket as a sleeper. At the same time, these drafts can also help you for when you want to take a look back and relive those knuckle head moves you and others made.

We have finally reached the mid-way point of the 2011 NFL season, and injuries have stormed the headlines so far in the early part of the year. We have already lost one first round pick for the year, another first rounder missing significant time,  and arguably the first tight end drafted miss 5 games. Injuries are next to impossible to predict, so drafting Jamaal Charles and Andre Johnson was smart, but drafting Chris Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald haven’t really panned out.

Most fantasy analysts will take this time to give you their mid-season awards, and while this article will be similar in a way, I will be basing this information totally off of the players ADP, who has out played their draft day status, and who hasn’t.

RISE:

I think it is safe to say that I have a slight man crush on Fred Jackson. This is now the third week in a row where I have mentioned him in some facet or another. But how can you not. Jackson ran for less than 1,000 yards last season, and in less than a full year he has accounted for nearly 75% of his 2010 totals. The whole Buffalo Bills offense is playing to a standard we aren’t accustomed to seeing and it all starts with Fred Jackson. Jacksons’ ADP among all players was 51 good for the 21st running back taken. Needless to say he has out performed his preseason position.

Fred Jackson is being awarded my Arian Foster award, for the running back taken outside of the top 50 draft picks yet performed in the top 5.

It is hard to talk about outstanding players without mentioning Wes Welker. Welker, the clear go to guy for Tom Brady now that Randy Moss is gone (Ochowho?) has nearly outperformed every single wide out in football to date, beside Megatron of course. Welker currently sits at #2 overall in terms of scoring for wide receivers through the first 8 weeks of the season.  To think that Wes Welker was a return man just a few seasons ago in Miami and now is one of the best players in the league is mind-boggling. In 2011 Welker is on pace for more than 110 catches and 1,700 yards receiving.

Wes Welker is being given my Brandon Lloyd Award. Awarded to the most outstanding receiver based on ADP. Welker’s ADP was 48 in 2011 and 64 in 2010, both years he outperformed those numbers. 

This next pass catcher, I had on my radar on draft day. Although it seems as if my radar was off because I didn’t want to touch this guy any time before the 10th round. Steve Smith has been resurrected from the dead in 2011 and I have to believe no one saw it coming. Smith currently ranks 4th among wide outs with nearly 1000 yards receiving through 8 games. His 83rd overall ADP didn’t suggest those numbers coming into the season. With the unbelievable emergence of Cam Newton as a top 5 QB, Smith has finally been able to run wild like he did for so many years in the past.  

Steve Smith is being awarded my Resident Evil Award. Given to the player who for the last few seasons has been a zombie on the football field, but seems to have found a cure for the T-Virus and is playing like we once knew him to.

Fall:

With all of the hype surrounding Michael Vick on draft day you would think he would be outscoring everyone in fantasy football by 1,248 points by now. That is just not the case, and while some of you may be scratching your heads at this one, Vick was touted all off-season as being the best fantasy player in the game (although he didn’t even outscore Arian Foster in 2010 for most points in the league). Vick averaged a draft pick of 4 in most leagues right behind some of the best running backs in the league (minus Chris Johnson who was 3rd) and was the first among quarterbacks selected in most drafts. (Remember the Eli before Brees thing I mentioned before? Yea I saw Eli before Vick as well) Michael Vick hasn’t had a terrible season by any stretch of the imagination; he just hasn’t played to the hype. Vick currently sits 6th among all quarterbacks including both Matthew Stafford, 93rd, and Cam Newton, Undrafted, and 12th in the league in total scoring leaders.

Michael Vick is being awarded my, Dude Where’s My Car Award. At this point people are scratching their heads saying, “dude where is my first round pick?”

In every season we find the player that was drafted really low and played really high, and then we find the player who was drafted really high, and is playing really low. This year is no different (SEE: Fred Jackson Above) and Chris Johnson. CJ2k was being drafted in the top 5 of most leagues. And anyone who was able to grab him later than that were dancing for joy knowing, or shall I say believing, they just drafted the steal of the whole thing and they haven’t even gotten out of the first round yet. I have got to believe those dancing fools are now banging their heads against the wall screaming “WHYYYYYY?” Chris Johnson is currently 30th among running backs in fantasy points for, barely a flex spot. Chris Johnson is being awarded my, Shonn Greene Award, given to the running back that was drafted really high, but performed really low.

These next two participants were drafted 1st and 6th among the leagues wide receivers but neither of them has achieved the numbers to establish their ADPs. Roddy White was drafted 11th overall and 1st for a wide out yet sits outside of the top 10 for receivers. Larry Fitzgerald is having similar problems as he also is on the outside looking in. Both of these high end WRs are experiencing some difficulties getting the ball regularly. The quarterbacks for the Falcons and the Cardinals respectively aren’t having that great of a season and thus it is causing these two top-notch pass catchers to stumble out of the gate. Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald are Co-Winners of my, WR Duo Award. As you can guess this is being awarded to the receiver(s) who can’t seem to get things straight.

Other Notable Awards being handed out: Jimmy Graham is being awarded my Marcedes Lewis Award. This award is given out to the most outstanding TE who was barely touched on draft day let alone in the starting lineups in week 1. Graham has outscored the 2nd best tight end by 21 points so far this season.

Cam Newton is being awarded my Where the Hell Did This Guy Come From Award. I argued back in week 3 that Cam Newton wouldn’t finish in the top 20 of QBs, boy was I wrong. Cam Newton went undrafed in most leagues and is now the best player in fantasy sports and has the 3rd most rushing TDs in the league only behind Adrian Peterson and LeSean McCoy.

And Darren Sproles is being awarded my Wes Welker Award. Given to the guy whom no one thought could be a viable offensive option, and now he rests among the top offensive producers in the league. Sproles is currently 2nd in the league in catches only behind the namesake of this award.

All Average Draft Positions were used by MockDraftCentral.com

All Numbers, and Rankings are up to date as of the end of all played games in week 8.

Written by Justin Mandaro exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
You can follow me on twitter @PeckinRotoX 

As always I will be chatting live on twitter from 10am to 12pm on game day taking your fantasy and probably life questions. 

(October 15, 2011 – Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images North America)


Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Advice, Peckin’ Order, Justin Mandaro, Week 9, Players on the Rise, Players on the Decline
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