Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: September 5, 2015
I know for many of you, your focus on baseball is waning. Don’t give up! We still have a month of baseball action and it’ll be even better when you’re winning money in MLB and CFB today.
As always, below I’ve included a breakdown for tonight’s slate of potential pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as an individual set of player rankings.
Be sure to sign up at DraftKings before football season kicks off if you haven’t already done so!
Forecast
In the night slate, the only concern are chances of thunderstorms in Detroit, otherwise we are all clear!
Pitching Perspective
Unfortunately, the night slate has very few legitimate pitching options, so the options that are available will be your primary cash game targets, while the rest will have to be reserved for tournament play.
The best option on the slate is none other than King Felix Hernandez. Felix has had an up and down year given his standards, but he’s still pitching well above average, as he’s posted a 3.29 xFIP thus far, despite a few horrendous outings. King Felix is that perfect mix of everything you want in a pitcher for DFS purposes. He works deep into the ballgame, he gets groundballs and has plenty of room for upside while striking out enough hitters per game to keep your floor high as well. He’ll match up on the road with the Oakland A’s, but he will still have hold of a good park for pitching purposes. The A’s have been in somewhat of an oblivion this year, ranking near the bottom third in terms of wOBA and in the middle of the pack in terms of wRC+. Vegas currently sees Felix as a slight favorite, but the best part about him for DFS purposes is his price tag. I know you’ll want to get plenty of exposure to Coors Field, but you can do so feasibly while still paying for Felix.
After King Felix there is quite a drop off in terms of viable pitching options for cash games. Gio Gonzalez stands as the largest favorite on the slate, and with an accessible price tag he’s probably the next in line to King Felix. Gonzalez gets a matchup with a hapless Atlanta Braves offense in his home ballpark. Taking advantage of Gonzalez tonight is purely based on his matchup and price. For $7,500 it won’t take much of a game for him to reach value, and anything above and beyond is icing on top.
After Gonzalez, look to Danny Salazar and Lance McCullers. Both Salazar and McCullers have some cash game appeal, but given their salaries and matchups, I’d be more inclined to use them in tournaments. Both are sizable favorites and are similar pitchers in terms of floor and ceiling. McCullers has been pretty awesome in his rookie season, striking out more than a hitter per inning while not ever really hitting a brick wall. He’s pitched to a 3.53 xFIP and has gotten plenty of ground balls. If deciding between these two for cash games, he’d be my guy.
Salazar is one of the most pure tournament options in all of baseball. He has incredible strikeout potential and has pitched phenomenally this season, however, thanks to his matchup with the Detroit Tigers and his salary relative to other pitchers, I’m reserving him for tournaments today. With that being said though, he is my favorite tournament option, so don’t just put him on the back burner for no reason.
Stack Options
- Coors Field – Obligatory Coors Field mention. Last night the two teams disappointed us to the tune of three total runs. I’m expecting a lot more tonight as Jake Peavy and Chad Bettis will square off. Both of these arms have exposable flaws – Peavy with flyballs, and Bettis with free passes and extra baserunners. Expose yourself to the big boppers like Carlos Gonzalez and Buster Posey, but also get as much value as you can near the top of the order, including Angel Pagan, Matt Duffy, Justin Morneau and Ben Paulsen.
2. Houston Astros – The Astros lineup is stacked. It’s deep, it’s powerful and it’s fast, three super dangerous weapons for a full stack. The best thing about it? They are all so cheap as well. You can pay up for pitching, expose yourself to the best players from Coors Field and still field a complete Astros stack without breaking a sweat. George Springer is back and this lineup is poised to explode against Ervin Santana. If you’re looking to differentiate yourselves from all of the Coors exposure, look here first.
3. Los Angeles Angels – This isn’t about picking on Derek Holland as much as it is trying to take advantage of a lineup that will really attack the platoon advantages tonight (aside from there also not being any other options). Of course guys like Albert Pujols and Mike Trout are in play, but potential values in David Freese, CJ Cron, Erick Aybar and company could provide with a contrarian lineup with power upside. They’re at number three on my list, and the gap from number two is pretty considerable.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Buster Posey -$5,000 – San Francisco Giants
- Nick Hundley -$3,800 – Colorado Rockies
- Carlos Perez -$2,000 – Los Angeles Angels (pure punt)
First Basemen
- Brandon Belt -$5,200 – San Francisco Giants
- Justin Morneau -$3,600 – Colorado Rockies
- Evan Gattis -$3,700 – Houston Astros
Second Basemen
- Jose Altuve -$4,600 – Houston Astros
- Jason Kipnis -$5,100 – Cleveland Indians
- Kelby Tomlinson – $3,600 – San Francisco Giants
Third Basemen
- Nolan Arenado -$5,000 – Colorado Rockies
- Matt Duffy -$4,600 – San Francisco Giants
- Jed Lowrie -$3,600 – Houston Astros
Shorstops
- Carlos Correa -$4,700 – Houston Astros
- Brandon Crawford -$4,600 – San Francisco Giants
- Jose Reyes -$4,600 – Colorado Rockies
- Erick Aybar -$3,000 – Los Angeles Angels (cheap option)
Outfield
- Carlos Gonzalez -$5,000 – Colorado Rockies
- Mike Trout -$4,900 – Los Angeles Angels
- George Springer -$4,300 – Houston Astros
- Angel Pagan -$3,400 – San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers
- Felix Hernandez -$10,700 – Seattle Mariners
- Gio Gonzalez -$7,500 – Washington Nationals
- Lance McCullers -$9,200 – Houston Astros
- Danny Salazar -$11,400 – Cleveland Indians