Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: September 6, 2015
Enjoy the peace and tranquility friends, for this is the last Sunday you’ll be able to enjoy without football for a long time. While baseball still rolls on, below I’ve included a discussion on today’s pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as a set of individual player rankings.
If you’re still not signed up at DraftKings, do so now and get prepared for the upcoming football season!
Forecast
The only chance for impactful weather appears to be in Miami where they have a retractable roof. Looks all clear!
Pitching Perspective
Options. That’s all anyone ever wants right? Thankfully, today we are graced with more than a few to choose from in both cash games and tournaments.
Starting at the top, you’ll be deciding whether to roll Dallas Keuchel or Johhny Cueto as lead anchor in cash games. Keuchel is a slightly larger favorite, but Cueto has the cheaper price tag. Both of these matchups are against AL Central foes, Cueto against the White Sox and Keuchel against the Twins. I’ve had the opportunity to write these guys up a bunch this season and the story stays the same. Both of them get lots of ground balls, but leave room for improvement in terms of strikeouts. Keuchel has made loads of improvement in the category, tacking on an extra 1.5 hitters per nine innings that he sends back to the bench empty handed. To go with his ground ball rate, Keuchel is an incredibly gifted at run prevention, pitching to a 2.70 xFIP this season. The aura that once surrounded the Twins offense early in the season has died a bit, as they’re in the bottom five in the league in terms of wOBA and wRC+ in the second half. He’s expensive, but he’s safe.
Cueto on the other hand has a matchup with an offense that has also had dramatic shifts in production this season. The good news is that his sub $10K price tag makes him incredibly accessible, and pushes down the number to reach value. His strikeout rate has taken a hit, but he’s pitching in front of an incredible defense in a great ballpark for pitchers. As I mentioned above, Vegas sees him as just a slightly less favorable pitcher today, but the implied runs total circling the White Sox is 3.2 runs, which is great news for Cueto backers. In order to gain exposure elsewhere, he’ll be a top option today.
After working down the ladder to get to Cueto, you can climb even further into salary relief to find Steven Matz and Joe Ross. A pair of rookie arms in great matchups today that fall in the $8-9K range on DraftKings. The problem with using Matz is that this is his first start since returning from the DL and given all the drama with Matt Harvey and injury, I’m sure the Mets will be limiting his pitch count. As a result, Matz becomes a tournament option only for me, albeit a fairly solid one in a matchup with the Marlins. Ross on the other hand should have no issue with pitch count or innings limit and gets a matchup with another dreadful NL East lineup, the Atlanta Braves. Ross has posted numbers similar to what you’d get from his brother Tyson (less strikeouts), having a reasonable K/9 while getting plenty of ground balls. The difference between the two is that Joe isn’t allowing nearly as many free passes, which is great for our cause. He’s about $1,000 cheaper than Johnny Cueto, and although he doesn’t have the same floor, he has a similar ceiling against a bad Braves team where he is the favorite.
Last but not least contains a spectrum from low to high of potential tournament options. On the low end, look at Andrew Cashner who is just $6,000 on DraftKings and on the high end look to Madison Bumgarner and Chris Archer. Let me start with Bumgarner and Archer before you rip my throat out for potentially recommending a pitcher in Coors Field. Bumgarner and Archer are tournament options for me today, and that’s it. The only time you’ll see them in my lineups are in large field tournaments where I need to separate myself from a large field of players. While their matchups and ballparks might not be great, the upside that both Bumgarner and Archer possess thanks to their strikeout potential is too great to throw by the wayside on a given day. You’ll have to pay up for them, but if you really want to take a shot, go for it. Cashner on the other hand is absurdly cheap and is pitching at home in a great ball park for pitchers. The Dodgers have not been the same offense of late and even though they’ve tried to spark it with the call up of Corey Seager, I don’t think Cashner should have too many issues. Cashner has struggled with the home run ball a bit this year, but otherwise he hasn’t been too bad, increasing his strikeout rate back north to a place that makes you dream about the potential upside. He’s only $6,000, he’s not going to crush you.
Stack Options
- San Francisco Giants – Normally I would just put Coors Field here, but I don’t really think it makes a whole lot of sense to roster guys against Madison Bumgarner, except for in large tournaments. On the other hand, the Giants are fairly well equipped to face mediocre left-handers, especially given the large park boost they get traveling to Coors Field. Buster Posey instantly becomes the number one catcher, and guys like Angel Pagan and Matt Duffy are great values near the top of the order.
- Toronto Blue Jays – It feels like a while since I was allowed to put the Blue Jays in this spot but they’ll be at home against Chris Tillman today. Although he’s made improvements in the past few years, Tillman has struggled with home runs and flyballs in the past, which is not a good thing heading into the Rogers Centre to face the Jays. The Jays implied run total is around 5.2 runs, and their salaries are still accessible for full stacks. The Jays will be a welcome “contrarian” stack to Coors Field, with just as much upside.
- Houston Astros – There are some teams with better implied run totals, but I’m sticking with the Astros as another option to Coors Field. The Astros have perhaps the highest ceiling of any team stack given their power and speed combination. Today they’ll be facing right-hander Tyler Duffey in their home ballpark. Duffey has been nothing special so far in his rookie season, posting a 4.51 xFIP, but the best thing is he’s allowing 4.5 BB/9. Extra baserunners are great for full stacks.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Buster Posey -$5,300 – San Francisco Giants
- Russell Martin -$3,700 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Derek Norris -$3,100 – San Diego Padres
First Basemen
- Edwin Encarnacion -$4,200 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Evan Gattis -$4,500 – Houston Astros
- Victor Martinez -$3,000 – Detroit Tigers
Second Basemen
- Jose Altuve -$5,400 – Houston Astros
- Anthony Rendon -$3,700 – Washington Nationals
- Matt Duffy -$4,600 – San Francisco Giants
Shortstops
- Troy Tulowitzki -$4,400 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Carlos Correa -$4,900 – Houston Astros
- Xander Bogaerts -$4,300 – Boston Red Sox
Third Basemen
- Josh Donaldson -$6,200 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Adrian Beltre -$3,700 – Texas Rangers
- Jed Lowrie -$3,700 – Houston Astros
Outfield
- Angel Pagan -$3,200 – San Francisco Giants
- Jose Bautista -$5,300 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Mike Trout -$4,500 – Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers
- Dallas Keuchel -$12,400 – Houston Astros
- Johnny Cueto -$9,400 – Kansas City Royals
- Joe Ross -$8,400 – Washington Nationals
- Gerrit Cole- $11,000 – Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chris Archer -$12,400 – Tampa Bay Rays
- Andrew Cashner -$6,000 – San Diego Padres
- Madison Bumgarner -$10,400 – San Francisco Giants