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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 9, 2015

Last night went decently well, but it definitely left me bummed at what could have been. Dwight Howard and James Harden were both let downs, Draymond didn’t go off as I anticipated and Russell Westbrook was balling out, but he didn’t play the fourth quarter due to a blow out which hurt his total output. I also wish I had went with more shares of Joe Johnson than I did. He and Klay did help salvage a few of my solid lineups that had their ceilings wrecked by one let down or another. I did manage to cash my double-ups and end in the green in two of four GPP contests, just nothing big. A night like last night definitely gets you fired up for the next slate, and tonight’s slate is a doozie. We’ve got 10 games on the slate with four teams on the second game of a back-to-back. We need to keep an eye out for Dwight Howard news to see if he’ll give it a go or take the night off as he has frequently been doing this season. Let’s check out the Vegas lines and totals for the slate.

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Vegas lines and totals

Miami (-1.5) @ Charlotte — 192.5
Houston (+2.5) @ Washington — 214.5
Chicago (+3) @ Boston — 201
Memphis (+3) @ Detroit — 192
San Antonio (-5) @ Toronto — 188
LA Lakers (+6.5) @ Minnesota — 204
LA Clippers (-5.5) @ Milwaukee — 201
Orlando (+4.5) @ Phoenix — 206.5
New York (+3) @ Utah — 190
Atlanta (+1.5) @ Dallas — 205

Yep, we all had the same thought. That Rockets/Wizards game easily sticks out as the most attractive. Plus, we know John Wall has been back to his aggressive ways lately and the Rockets allow opposing PGs to ball out, Beal may be good offensively but opposing SGs have had big games against him consistently on the other end, in comes the Beard. Spurs/Raptors and Knicks/Jazz look like games you want to avoid or at least be sure not to stack by any means. OK, now lets look at my top plays and values of the night.

POINT GUARD

John Wall ($8,700) – As I just mentioned above, the Rockets have been very beneficial to our DFS point guards and in this case, they’re also coming off a tough fought loss last night to the Nets. Wall has been tremendous the past handful of games since he told team beat writers that the team needed him to step up. In the last five games, Wall has put up fantasy nights of 65, 64 and 58 and the other two both went for 39. I think he stays above 39 again tonight in a fun battle with Patrick Beverley who allowed Jarrett Jack 33 FPs (fantasy points) last night. Balls to the walls on this Wednesday night.

Brandon Knight ($7,500) – If it’s safe you want, Knight hasn’t produced less than 30 FPs in the last 14 games. He takes on a Magic team that is 24th against point guards, so there’s no reason to believe his streak will end tonight. He’s averaged 38 FPs in that 14 game span.

Ricky Rubio ($6,700) – If I don’t pay up for Wall, I am going to lock Rubio in as my point guard more than likely, and I may even have lineups where I use both of them. Rubio has looked good the last two games where he put up back-to-back 38 FP efforts, and tonight he takes on the pathetic Lakers guards who couldn’t stop a grandma from taking it to the hoop on them. Rubio went off on the Lakeshow for 55 FPs earlier this year, but I’m projecting him in the low-40s tonight.

Cheap risk option: Trey Burke ($4,100) despite his off shooting night last night, is still my value play at point guard tonight. He should still see a good bulk of minutes and in front of the home crowd, let’s hope he’s on the mark for this slate.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden ($10,600) – Man, it was tough to write his name down after last night. Harden cost me a good bit of money last night in lineups that were really strong elsewhere, but you can’t hold grudges in DFS or it will make you pay x2. Harden is one of the best offensive SGs in the game and the Wizards are in the bottom three against opposing SGs. What more do you need to know?

Eric Bledsoe ($8,100) – Want to save a couple grand at the position and still get great output and have big time upside, then Bledsoe is your guy. The Magic allow guards to do work and much like Knight, Bledsoe has been incredibly consistent, also the Magic are on the second game of a road back-to-back, so they could definitely be feeling some fatigue. Everything lines up for a 40+ DK night from EB.

Cheap risk option: Gary Neal ($3,600) is the obvious value option here tonight. The sniper shooter is cheap, played over 34 minutes in the last two games and his shooting should make him a fine play tonight. As always with shooters, if they have an off shooting night, they can hit rock bottom, hence the “risk” category. Neal has went for 21, 27 and 34 DK points in the last three games.

SMALL FORWARD

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($6,600) – None of the SFs really stand out as must plays tonight because they’re all in that second to third tier price range, most have solid matchups and they’re all equally inconsistent but full of upside. Giannis is one that I think I’ll own more than others tonight. After a few game slump, the Greek Freak returned to his box score filling ways the last two games and that should continue tonight against the Clippers who will have a tough time finding a match for Antetokounmpo of on the defensive end.

Marcus Morris ($6,100) – Another guy who has been up and down, but is still getting big minutes and double digit shots every night. Morris has been a better player at home and with that plus a great matchup against the Grizzlies who have allowed a lot of FPs to SFs, everything points to one of his high scoring nights.

Cheap risk option: Trevor Ariza is doubtful tonight, so Marcus Thornton ($3,800) should draw a start and get a healthy dose of minutes. After Ariza left last night’s game, Thornton lit it up for 32 actual points. Chandler Parsons ($4,100) is another value choice at small forward. Let’s hope this time he isn’t scratched just before games tip, and if he is, let’s hope I am able to make the switch before having to take zeros… Chandler is playing minutes in the mid-to-high 20s currently and may draw the start tonight. Either way, he has the potential to beat value at this price. Lastly, Mirza Teletovic ($4,100) has been a guy I’ve been playing since he was playing a lesser role and was near minimum price, but now he’s been playing bigger minutes and just burning the nets down with 3-pointers. He’s put up more than 21 DK points in seven of the last eight games, including 25 and 33 in the most recent two.

POWER FORWARD

Chris Bosh ($7,400) – I know it feels dicey today with me writing up so many players who have been far from consistent, but while Bosh has mixed in some 25 FP nights with 40 FP nights, he’s still played well overall. The one small concern here is it’s a road game and Bosh has been better at home, but the Hornets are so ridiculously bad at sopping opposing PFs, that Bosh is still a top play for me. Anything less than 35 FPs for Bosh would really surprise me tonight, but he has a really vaulted ceiling in this matchup.

Dirk Nowitzki ($6,800) – The old man has still got it, there’s no doubting that. He’s been extra hot latelt with 47, 40, 34 and 36 FPs in his last four games. The Hawks haven’t been doing a good job against power forwards, but Dirk isn’t like most PFs that teams encounter, he is in a world of his own as far as shot making goes. Dirk will play outside, in the high post or on the block and can lay it in or hit you with his patented fade-away. Millsap is in for a woeful night on the defensive end.

Cheap risk option: If it worked last night, why not go right back to it? Andrew Nicholson ($4,000) should again see 20+ minutes and he’s been really productive with the minutes he’s been granted. Another 24 FPs for the Canadian baller last night thanks to his 14 rebounds.

CENTER

Nikola Vucevic ($7,000) – I shy away from my Magic crew a lot of times, because you never know what coach Skiles has in store for his rotations night-to-night, even with the stars. I said last night that I liked using one of the top four centers, and that included Vooch, but I went with the equally priced Dwight over the Magic big man in all lineups. That didn’t go so well. Tonight I am leaning to Vooch as one of my top center plays, especially if Tyson Chandler misses tonight’s game for the Suns. Expect much of the same that we saw last night from Nikola, leading him to another 35+ FP night.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($6,800) – Vucevic may be a bit safer, but there’s no doubt that the mid-tier priced option with the most upside at center tonight is rookie standout, Karl-Anthony Towns. The Wolves play the hapless Lakers who have been decimated by everyone they play, especially point guards and centers. Towns went on a bit of a cold spell a little over a week ago when he played just 19-26 minutes, but the 2015 number one draft pick has played 29 and 32 minutes in the last two games, having great fantasy showings in both. Look for him to hit a big time fantasy number tonight if he is again freed to play around 30 minutes.

Alex Len ($4,600) – If Tyson Chandler misses his seventh straight game tonight, Alex Len is a solid value play for your lineups if you decide to go cheap at center and pay up elsewhere. Len doesn’t have a very high ceiling as he’s gone for 16 – 16 – 28 – 29 DK points over the last four games, the better showings being the most recent two. It has all been dependent on his minutes given. When he’s played above 20 he’s hit value, when he’s not, he hasn’t. That simple, and that’s why he’s not a sure thing but his price reflects that.

Cheap risk option: This is the pick your poison spot of the night if you go looking for a punt option. Here are the players to consider and note that none have upsides exceeding the low-20s really and their minutes and performances have been unpredictable: Kelly Olynyk ($4,200), Robin Lopez ($3,800), Spencer Hawes ($3,700) and Frank Kaminsky ($3,400).

Cash game rankings:

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) John Wall
2) Ricky Rubio
3) Brandon Knight
4) Kyle Lowry
5) Deron Williams
6) Trey Burke
7) Reggie Jackson

SG
1) James Harden
2) Eric Bledsoe
3) Victor Oladipo
4) Dwyane Wade
5) O.J. Mayo
6) Gary Neal
7) Kobe Bryant

SF
1) Marcus Morris
2) Giannis Antetokounmpo
3) Otto Porter
4) Gordon Hayward
5) Mirza Teletovic
6) Chandler Parsons
7) Carmelo Anthony

PF
1) Chris Bosh
2) Dirk Nowitzki
3) Derrick Favors
4) Andrew Nicholson
5) Blake Griffin
6) Jon Leuer
7) Nikola Mirotic

C
1) Nikola Vucevic
2) Karl-Anthony Towns
3) Andre Drummond
4) Alex Len (if Chandler is out)
5) Greg Monroe
6) Marcin Gortat
7) Jared Sullinger

As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.

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