Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: February 24, 2016
Ten NBA games tonight and we’re breaking them down for tonight’s DFS slate. I will be going over the top plays and values at each position and then finishing up with positional rankings to help you build winning lineups. If you followed the game-plan for Monday’s slate, I feel quite confident that you had a nice night, especially if you happened to shy away from Jamal Crawford who I and many other touts were listing as a quality play. It suggested Giannis, Lowry, Towns, Dieng and as a value play, Price, who were all featured in my personal primary lineup that night, it was a good one. Let’s do it again, but as always with huge slates, there’s so many possibilities and so many ways to play it, that anything can happen, and wait until you see the Vegas numbers. Speaking of which…
Vegas lines and totals
New York (+8) @ Indiana — Vegas projected game total of 203
Charlotte (+8.5) @ Cleveland — 205.5
Minnesota (+9.5) @ Toronto — 212
Golden State (-9) @ Miami — 215
Philadelphia (+11) @ Detroit — 207.5
Washington (?) @ Chicago — ???
LA Lakers (+8) @ Memphis — 205
Oklahoma City (-4.5) @ Dallas — 215
Denver (+10) @ LA Clippers — 213
San Antonio (-?) @ Sacramento — ???
Boy, it’s going to be another huge DFS scoring night looking at the above numbers. Monday saw GPP winning scores that neared 400, and tonight will likely be the same, and maybe some will actually hit 400. Every game that we have numbers for has a 200+ total and four of which have 210+, that’s insanity. None of the games are worth totally fading, but I’d beware of the Spurs game in case of a blow out. The four games with 210+ totals obviously deserve added attention, especially the top scorers for the involved teams. One note: The Wizards are playing their fifth game in six nights, so I’m a little hesitant with them tonight. Let’s now get right to the player analysis with the top plays and values on the slate.
POINT GUARD
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Russell Westbrook – He’s priced super high, and he needs 48 fantasy points (FPs) to hit value, but in a game projected at 215 points, I like to have the top players. Plus, Westbrook has went for 50+ fantasy points in more than ten straight games. If you can build a lineup around his pricing, go for it.
Kyle Lowry – If I don’t go with Westy, I am probably going to one of my favorites in Kyle Lowry. He’s just super solid and has a plus matchup against the Wolves backcourt that is bottom-third in the league at containing opposing point guards. I have K-Low projected at 43 FPs.
Tony Parker – If Kawhi Leonard is out again, TP is a really solid play as he sees a nice bump in usage rate with Leonard out. Parker is coming off of back-to-back 30+ FP performances, which both were really generous matchups, but guess what, tonight he plays the Kings who are about as bad as it gets at stopping PGs. He’s one of the better lower-mid tier options at this spot, as is his backup Patty Mills.
Cheap risk option: D.J. Augustin is the go-to cheap option here tonight. He’s been really solid off the bench since being traded to the Nuggets last week, posting 17, 22.5, 23 and 20 FPs in those games. The upside isn’t high as you see, but at a near minimum price, you’ll take it and the flexibility it allows you to bulk up elsewhere.
SHOOTING GUARD
Dwyane Wade – All the usage. All the FPs. The Heat are going to have to live through Wade tonight to stay in this one much as the way they did earlier this season. In that game Wade put up 49 FPs, so he’s more than capable of getting it done. His shot wasn’t on last time, but he got to the foul line eight times and dished out 11 assists. Wade loves to step his game up for the big games, and he’ll want this one bad at home.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – With Stanley Johnson sidelined for a couple weeks, there’s nothing stopping KCP from continuing to see mega-minutes. At his cheap price, he only needs 24 FPs to hit the value line, and in 38 minutes against the Sixers, that shouldn’t be much of a problem.
Jamal Crawford – He burned a lot of people severely on Monday, so he’ll be severely under-owned tonight, and I am definitely going to have the veteran in a couple of GPP (big tournaments) lineups as a contrarian play. His price is fair and the Nuggets are a nice matchup for him, the upside is there for tournaments.
Cheap risk option: Langston Galloway is the guy to watch here. Kurt Rambis has hinted at a starting lineup change, and most believe that to be Galloway starting over Jose Calderon. If that is the case, Langston would get a really nice boost, and be in great shape to beat out value. Monitor that situation closely. Also, Vince Carter looks like he’ll see a boost in playing time with Tony Allen likely to miss tonight’s game for the Grizzlies. Vince is super cheap, he’s played 21, 26 and 31 minutes the last three games and in those put up 19, 25 and 31 FPs. He’ll be a solid punt play tonight.
SMALL FORWARD
Kevin Durant – Yep, another top scorer in a highly projected game. Durant has to hit 44 FPs for value, and he’s averaged 48 FPs in two games against the Mavs this season. I have him pegged right at 50 FPs, but as always with KD, there’s definite upside if he gets hot and the game stays competitive.
Matt Barnes – Somehow Barnes has shot 2/16 over the past two games, yet he still managed 26 and 15 FPs thanks to his ability to fill out the stat sheet, especially the defensive numbers. Tonight Barnes takes on his ex-team, the Lakers and if he can even hit 40% of his shots in his 30 minutes, he’ll return really nice value on his mid-level price tag.
Cheap risk option: It doesn’t get any riskier than Lance Stephenson, but after playing 22 minutes in his first game with the Grizz and putting up 24 FPs, you have to think he’s worth punt consideration with Tony Allen out. The floor is low, but no cheap play is safe.
POWER FORWARD
Draymond Green – The guy just gets it done by filling in the box score like few others can do. With Bogut back in play, his minutes sadly won’t be as plentiful at center, but he’ll still be able to put in work against the lack of quality Heat bigs with Bosh still sidelined. Look for Draymond to hit around the 50 FP bar tonight. He had 48 last time against the Heat.
Gorgui Dieng – The price has stayed the same, but he’s crushed value at this level in five of the last six games. Toronto doesn’t really have any adamant power forwards to stop Gorgui from doing the Dieng thang. I have him projected at 34 FPs.
Cheap risk option: Josh McRoberts is still sitting at a really cheap price and has been great in two of the last three games for the Heat. His role has increased due to his health and the absence of Bosh. If this game stays reasonably close, McBob shouldn’t have a problem putting up 20 FPs for the low.
CENTER
Andre Drummond – Yeah, I know… Every time I write up Drummond he has an average or less game, but YOU CAN’T STOP ME! Crushing value in three of the last four and looking at a drool worthy matchup tonight against Philly, Drummond seems a sure bet to go for 40+ FPs and his value line is just 36. I actually have him projected at an aggressive 48 FPs and he could even surpass that if all goes right.
Marcin Gortat – I know I said I’m hesitant of the Wizards playing their fifth game in six nights, but Gortat was money even when they played three games in a row last week. So, yeah, I can’t pass him up as an option against Pau Gasol who loves to put up and give out fantasy points. I have Tat projected at 36 FPs. I will split between Gortat and Jonas Valanciunas though, I like both tonight.
Cheap risk option: I’m not going the punt route at center tonight, but if I were to take a shot on one it’d be Bismack Biyombo who has at least hit above his cheap value line in three of the last four and has a decent matchup tonight. He could even see more minutes if Jonas were to get in foul trouble, but that’s a long shot.
Cash game rankings:
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
PG
1) Russell Westbrook
2) Kyle Lowry
3) Tony Parker
4) Stephen Curry
5) Mike Conley
6) Chris Paul
7) Mario Chalmers
8) D.J. Augustin
9) Reggie Jackson
10) Patty Mills
SG
1) Dwyane Wade
2) DeMar DeRozan
3) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
4) Langston Galloway (if he starts)
5) J.J. Redick
6) Vince Carter
7) E’Twaun Moore
8) Jamal Crawford
9) Nicolas Batum
SF
1) Kevin Durant
2) Carmelo Anthony
3) Matt Barnes
4) LeBron James
5) Paul George
6) Lance Stephenson
PF
1) Draymond Green
2) Gorgui Dieng
3) DeMarcus Cousins
4) LaMarcus Aldridge
5) Zach Randolph
6) Myles Turner
7) Julius Randle
8) Josh McRoberts
9) Kevin Love
10) Serge Ibaka
C
1) Andre Drummond
2) DeAndre Jordan
3) Karl-Anthony Towns
4) Marcin Gortat
5) Jonas Valanciunas
6) Jahlil Okafor
7) Ian Mahinmi
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.
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