Fantasy Basketball

2014-15 Fantasy Basketball: Week 13 Buy/Sell

Photo credit: Doug Pensinger/Getty Images
Photo credit: Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Welcome to the Week 13 Buy/Sell report, folks. With the NBA All-Star Game just a few weeks away, it seems like a bevy of players around the league could use the short break as the injuries continue to pile up around the league. This week was particularly brutal in terms of injuries as Kobe Bryant (shoulder), LaMarcus Aldridge (thumb), Brandon Jennings (achilles), Nicolas Batum (wrist), Hassan Whiteside (ankle), Dwight Howard (ankle), Kemba Walker (knee), Kelly Olynyk (ankle), and Mirza Teletovic (blood clot) all went down with their unfortunate injuries. It just goes to show that you have to be able to adjust on the fly when injuries strike your squad as far as assessing how said injury will impact you in the standings. Once that part of the equation is figured out, the next order is to peruse the trade block and exhaust all efforts in finding suitable trade partners if you decide you must make a trade to fill the void on your roster.

Most of the players yet to be discussed for the purposes of this column have recently returned from injuries and it’s always interesting to examine the trade value of players with some uncertainty lingering on how to appropriately assess their value. With that being said, let’s go ahead and get started.

As an aside, you can follow me on Twitter right here.

Buy Low

Jusuf Nurkic (200) – 6.6 PTS-5.7 REB-0.8 AST-0.7 ST-1.1 BLK-44.6% FG-69.0% FT

After a blistering six-game stretch from Dec. 30-Jan. 9 where Nurkic averaged 12.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.3 steals, and 3.2 blocks on 54.2% shooting, the rookie has really cooled off of late. Foul trouble, awful shooting, a sore back, playing better teams, and head coach Brian Shaw yanking him around in terms of minutes played have all played a role in his recent struggles. Over his last six games, the 20-year-old Bosnian is only averaging 5.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.5 blocks on an abysmal 31.8% from the field. Additionally, he’s only averaging 20.5 minutes per game over that stretch. Coincidentally or not, the Nuggets have lost five of their last six games as well. While he is still rebounding at a nice rate, he definitely needs to iron out his struggles around the basket. Nurkic is only shooting 44.6% from less than 8 ft. while the league average for this area is 55.2%. He is one of the youngest players in the association at age 20 though so ups and downs are to be expected, especially playing for a head coach with fickle rotations.

Even with all the aforementioned areas of concern for Nurkic, there is nowhere to go up from a fantasy perspective considering his fantasy value has hit rock bottom for the moment. According to NBA.com/stats, Nurkic has a 22.2% usage rate. This is very encouraging considering the only other Nuggets player with a higher usage rate is Ty Lawson coming in at 23 percent. While he may not see more than 20-25 minutes for the foreseeable future, owners can hang their hat on his usage rate knowing he’s being utilized a lot on offense in his limited minutes on the court. Also helping the cause is the fact middling talents J.J. Hickson and JaVale McGee (leg) are really his only competition for minutes at the center position. At age 20, there’s no question Nurkic possesses way more talent than either Hickson or McGee and while he may not be producing up to owners expectations at the moment, the Nuggets season is a lost cause and an emphasis should be based on player development as the team looks ahead to the future. He may have to earn his stripes so to speak in terms of playing time, but he can be a great asset for owners in need of boards and blocks. Send out some buy-low offers for the talented 7-footer as you can likely acquire him for pennies on the dollar at the moment.

Hassan Whiteside (99) – 7.4 PTS-5.8 REB-0.1 AST-0.5 ST-2.0 BLK-68.4% FG-50.0% FT

While Whiteside has missed the last two games for the Heat since suffering a Grade-1 ankle sprain in the first half of Tuesday’s game against the Thunder, it appears that he’s on track to play today against the Bulls. For those unsure of the status of his ankle, a Grade-1 sprain is the least severe variety. It’s worth mentioning he said his ankle is at 90 percent for the game today. Prior to his injury on Tuesday, Whiteside had already racked up 10 points, two rebounds, and a block on 5-5 shooting in only 11 minutes, continuing his recent streak of superb play. The 25-year-old Marshall product has been a revelation as of late for the Heat as he’s ranked 59 in 9-cat leagues over the last month and 17th over the last two weeks. Over his last 10 games, Whiteside has averaged 11.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks on an incredible 70.6% shooting. Additionally, he owns a solid 21.5% usage rate over the last 10 games as well. Furthermore, his 68.4% mark from the field on the year would rank as the second-best figure in the NBA behind only DeAndre Jordan if he had played enough games to qualify.

Whiteside also had a stretch from Jan. 3-Jan. 14 where he poured in double-digits in points over six straight games, averaging 13.8 points over 24 MPG. His emergence as an extremely efficient finisher, solid rebounder, and an above average shot-blocker has certainly been surprising considering his journeyman status. He was originally drafted by the Kings in the 2nd round in 2010 before being waived in 2012. He then spent time in the D-League, China, Lebanon, and the Grizzlies over the past few years before finally landing with the Heat in November. While he may encounter some rough patches along the way, it’s clear based on his recent play that he possesses early-round upside. Another factor helping his cause for supplying long-term value is the fact Dwayne Wade is an obvious shutdown candidate if the Heat fall out of playoff contention and that would free up 17.3 field goal attempts. As long as you can live with below average free throw shooting and providing next to no dimes (2 assists last 10 games), he makes for an excellent buy-low target.

UPDATE: Wrote this up before the Heat/Bulls game earlier and then Whiteside proceeded to have one of the lines of the year as he secured his first career triple-double with 14 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 blocks in only 25 minutes. He’s been a top-20 asset over the last two weeks and owners should be looking to acquire, not send away an early-round asset.

DeMar DeRozan (175) – 17.8 PTS-3.8 REB-2.5 AST-0.3 3PM-1.3 ST-39.4% FG79.9% FT

After returning from his groin injury on Jan. 14, DeRozan proceeded to score 20+ points in three straight games as he averaged 22.3 points on 54 percent shooting with 17 free throw attempts and looked like he wouldn’t miss a beat for the much-improved Raptors. The good times didn’t last long though as he has been a downright disaster over his last three contests where he has combined for 14 points.One of those games happened to be the worst game of his career as he went 0-9 for 0 points against the Bucks on Jan. 19. Over his last three games he’s only averaging 4.7 points on a horrendous 17.6% mark from the field to go along with only three free throw attempts. The reason I bring up the lack of free throw attempts is for the simple reason that it suggests he has been settling for too many jumpers rather than attacking the basket which happens to be his greatest asset. All one must do is take a gander at his shot chart over his last three games below to determine whether shot selection is the issue at hand.

DeRozan last 3
DeRozan shot chart last 3 games

As you can see, DeRozan has seemingly been allergic to the paint over the last three games as only five of his 34 shots have came from that area. The 25-year-old out of USC has never been known as a great shooter as his career mark of 44.4% shooting would attest and he’s shooting a horrific 25.7% on jump shots this year. Over his entire six-year career, DeRozan has only converted 31.7% of his jump shots. One could stand to reason that he should stop settling for so many long jumpers as it’s really dragging down his efficiency. It should be noted that since Terrence Ross has been moved to the bench, DeRozan has been playing more small forward rather than shooting guard, so the position change could be having some adverse effects in the short-term.

While his statistics have regressed across the board this year, poor play hasn’t been the only problem so far for his fantasy value as playing with an improved team has affected his statistical output as well. With that being said, DeRozan can still be a player capable of providing mid-round value as an excellent source of points, steals, and FT%. Don’t expect him to help you in 3-pointers though as he’s still a woeful shooter from deep. His 28 percent usage rate is nearly identical to the 28.2% usage rate he had with the Raptors last year, suggesting he still has room to improve in many areas. Considering his fantasy value is at its absolute lowest point right now, buying low is the advised course of action for one of the better scorers in the NBA.

 

Sell High

Chandler Parsons (54) – 15.7 PTS-4.8 REB-2.3 AST-2.0 3PM-1.0 ST-45.5% FG-72.6% FT

Let’s start with the good stuff. Over his last 10 games, Parsons is averaging 14.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.7 3PM, and 1.1 steals on 44.6% shooting. He’s ranked 63rd in 9-cat formats over the last month and 56th over the last two weeks. Time for the flip side. While he’s been playing well as of late, his values indicate his upside is somewhat capped due to him being on a loaded Mavericks team. Parsons is clearly behind Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki in the pecking order for shots while Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler can be capable scorers at times as well. Before the Mavs acquired Rondo through a trade, Parsons was clearly the third option on offense. While that may be the case still, Rondo is a ball-dominant player who is surely to take some looks and assists from Parsons.

In fact, the 26-year-old Florida product hasn’t recorded more than four assists in his last 18 games. Considering he averaged 4.0 assists per game with the Rockets last season, this is quite a disappointing development for his fantasy value. Compared to last season, Parsons has seen his averages drop in points (-0.9), rebounds (-0.7), assists (-1.7), steals (-0.2), FG% (-1.7), and FT% (1.6). While he’s still a safe mid-round value, my suggestion would be to try to take advantage of his recent strong play and target someone who possesses more upside but may not be ranked as high at the moment.

Enes Kanter (118) – 13.9 PTS-7.5 REB-0.6 AST-0.3 3PM-0.5 ST-0.4 BLK-49.6% FG-82.1% FT

While Kanter went on a two-game tear recently as he put up 24-17 against the Cavaliers and 23-16 against the Bucks when Derrick Favors missed a game, the 22-year-old predictably cooled off last night as he recorded 10 points and four rebounds on 5-12 FG in 28 minutes. While the fourth-year pro out of Kentucky is nice source of points and rebounds with solid percentages on most nights, his caveats severely limit his upside as evidenced by his current 10th-round value. His lack of defensive stats, especially blocks, really hurts his value as a big man. Over his last 10 games the 6’11 center only has two blocks. While it looks like head coach Quin Snyder is comfortable leaving Kanter as a starter for the foreseeable future, Rudy Gobert is earning more playing time as he’s already one of the best rim protectors in the league and the Jazz play considerably better defense when he’s on the court. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him supplant Kanter as the starter in the future considering his rapid improvement and even if it doesn’t happen, Gobert’s presence will continue to be a thorn in the side for Kanter owners. Sell-high while you can, as there is no upside to be had here.
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Thanks for reading and thanks to Yahoo, ESPN, and NBA.com/stats for providing the statistical information. Be sure to to comment below with any questions or remarks you have concerning the article. You can follow me on Twitter @MattMoczy and I’m more than willing to answer any questions.

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11 Comments

  1. Zack Thomas
    January 26, 2015 at 11:06 pm

    Hey Matt!

    Zack here again. Wow, what a whirlwind couple of days it was for me at the SG spot. I was unfortunate enough to lose Bryant for the season, but someone dropped George Hill a few days earlier, so I was able to swap Bryant for Hill. Hill returned from injury the same night. He obviously doesn’t put up the numbers that Bryant does, but he’s not a bad consolation prize.

    To make matters more confusing, someone dropped Joe Johnson today since he is in the midst of a heavy slump. Should I drop Hill for Joe Johnson? I am in a 7 category league and am excelling in 3’s, rebounds, and blocks. I began to make the move towards getting stronger at steals by trading Ryan Anderson for Trevor Ariza. With those four categories in mind, do you have a recommendation?

    Thanks as always!

    Zack

    • January 27, 2015 at 8:39 am

      Zack,

      While Hill has the clear advantage in FG% and slight edge in FT%, Johnson is superior in all the other categories so I think you should go ahead and make the move.

  2. Zack Thomas
    January 26, 2015 at 11:09 pm

    One more note – Matt Barnes, Lou Williams, Illysova, Gallinari, Tony Allen, Wesley Johnson, and PJ Tucker are also available. Thanks!

  3. Mustafa
    January 27, 2015 at 3:05 pm

    Hey Matt!
    Should I drop Jrue Holiday/Ricky Rubio if I’m 8th out of 10 teams and im fighting for a playoff spot? I don’t know which one to drop (or drop both, or none) but both of them are great fits for my team so I really don’t know what to do, their injuries both seem pretty severe. i heard something about rubio coming back feb 1 possibly but i’m not even sure about that, and I think Jrue is 2-4 weeks away. what should I do?
    (OR) if you think you know anyone I could trade for that could give me FG%, steals, blocks, assists or something along those lines, that would be great

    • Mustafa
      January 27, 2015 at 3:09 pm

      P.S: if the pelicans continue winning in jrue’s absense like they have, then they might make Jrue wait even longer or not start him or something, and I know he’ll be rusty for the first week, so is all this worth keeping these 2 amazing players?

    • January 28, 2015 at 8:25 am

      Mustafa,

      It’s a hard question to answer without knowing who you would potentially add if you were to drop either Rubio/Holiday. Are there any other droppable players on your squad other than Rubio/Holiday? If push comes to shove, I would rather keep Rubio over Holiday considering he is closer to a return to the court. Holiday’s stress reaction worries me as it seems eerily similar to the injury he suffered last year. New Orleans media is notoriously bad at acquiring injury updates so you may not receive a whole lot of clarity on his injury in the near future. Also not helping his cause is the fact that the Pelicans are unlikely to make the playoffs as is and if they fall out of playoff contention while he’s injured, the Pels may decide not to risk further injury.

  4. Tyler
    January 29, 2015 at 7:07 am

    Hey Matt,

    Good day. Do you think I should pickup Beverley or Robin Lopez?
    Here’s my team:
    G – cp3 rubio holiday smart
    F – kawhi Hayward draymond covington
    C – horford brolo sullinger noel nurkic

    Was thinking dropping smart for beverley but I might need Smart’s assists if jrue is done for the year. Or do I just cut bait with jrue and drop him for Beverley?
    Also is Nurkic droppable for robin Lopez?
    Thanks,
    Tyler

  5. January 29, 2015 at 8:14 am

    Tyler,

    I would still stash Holiday even though yesterday a report came out saying he has no specific timetable for his return and is out indefinitely. He still possesses a lot of upside when he’s on the court and I would wait for another update before dropping him. I wouldn’t drop Smart for Beverley either as Smart has been a top-100 value the last month and like you said, may need his AST if Holiday ends up not coming back. Since you already have four capable centers in Horford-Lopez-Sully-Nurkic, I would be fine with dropping Noel for Beverley. Noel is a good source of REB-ST-BLK but his FG% and FT% leave a lot to be desired and he’s not a great asset in points either. His upside is limited, so that’s why I would be fine with dropping him for Bev. Also, don’t drop Nurkic for RoLo. Nurkic possesses more upside and has started to get it going lately after a recent mini-slump.

    • Tyler
      January 29, 2015 at 3:53 pm

      Thanks Matt! Could always count on you for a great analysis.

  6. Zack Thomas
    February 1, 2015 at 2:36 pm

    Hi Matt!

    I had a quick question. I just lost Kobe Bryant for the season to injury. Someone dropped Dwyane Wade in our league and I currently have the #3 waiver priority. I am currently in 2nd place and have a pretty easy rest-of-schedule. Is it worth using my waiver priority on Wade? I’d probably have to drop George Hill or Bogut.

    Thanks!
    ZT

    • February 2, 2015 at 11:03 am

      Zack,

      I’d probably go ahead and drop Bogut for Wade if you can afford to wait on his return to the court. Bogut is having his minutes limited and not providing a whole lot of value other than REB-BLK-AST.